Proposed riding 53 of 91

Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca

Under the Independent Advisory Panel's proposed map, now before the Legislature. All results replay the 2023 election on these boundaries.

Votes here count 15% more than the average Alberta vote. On the 2023 vote it is about as competitive as the Commission's Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca.

46,602
people (panel's estimate), -13% vs the average riding of 53,722
UCP +48.1
2023 votes on these boundaries (UCP 74.1% of the UCP+NDP vote)
UCP
if Alberta split 50/50. It changes hands when the UCP's province-wide share is below 30.4%
15,750 km²
area

How much a vote here counts

Each MLA represents a group of people. In a riding with fewer people than average, each vote carries more weight. On the panel's map, a vote here counts 1.15× the average: more than in 82 of the other 90 ridings.

2023 election map (where its residents voted in 2023)
1.11×
Commission's map (for the same residents)
1.05×
Panel's map
1.15×

The black tick marks the average (1.00×). Weight = average riding population ÷ this riding's population, using current population estimates: the panel's and the Commission's own figures, and for the 2023 ridings, 2021 census counts scaled to the same estimates. For the first two maps it is averaged over this riding's current residents. Older ridings that have grown a lot since they were drawn show low weights; that imbalance is one reason ridings are redrawn.

What changes for UCP and NDP voters

The same 2023 ballots, counted three ways: in the riding most of these residents voted in, in the closest Commission riding, and in this riding.

UCP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock)		Commission
(mostly Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesWinsWinsWins
Share of the UCP+NDP vote74%74%74%
Votes that didn't affect the result33%32%32%
Province-wide vote needed to win here30%30%30%

NDP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock)		Commission
(mostly Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesLosesLosesLoses
Share of the UCP+NDP vote26%26%26%
Votes that didn't affect the result100%100%100%
Province-wide vote needed to win here70%70%70%

Voters for other parties and independents win this seat on none of the three maps. "Province-wide vote needed" is the party's share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta at which it would take this seat, assuming every riding moves by the same amount.

How competitive is it?

2023 election mapUCP +48.6safe
Commission's mapUCP +47.9safe
Panel's mapUCP +48.1safe
40%45%50%55%60%65%below this line the NDP wins; above it the UCP202360%70%80%90%UCP share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta↑ UCP share in this riding
Each line shows how the riding would vote as Alberta's overall vote moves (grey: the 2023 riding most residents voted in; green: the closest Commission riding; purple: this riding). Dots mark where each would change hands.

City, town or country?

Cities 0% · Towns and villages 29% · Rural areas and First Nations 71%. Share of residents, 2021 census. Sherwood Park and Fort McMurray count as cities.

The boundary

The proposed boundary
Edmonton-Beverly-ClareviewEdmonton-Castle DownsEdmonton-City CentreEdmonton-DecoreEdmonton-EllerslieEdmonton-EnochEdmonton-Glenora-RiverviewEdmonton-Gold BarEdmonton-Highlands-NorwoodEdmonton-ManningEdmonton-McClungEdmonton-MeadowsEdmonton-Mill WoodsEdmonton-NiskuEdmonton-North WestEdmonton-RutherfordEdmonton-StrathconaEdmonton-West HendayEdmonton-WhitemudEdmonton-WindermereCamroseCold Lake-Bonnyville-St. PaulDrayton Valley-DevonFort McMurray-Lac La BicheFort Saskatchewan-VegrevilleLac Ste. AnneLesser Slave LakeLloydminster-WainwrightMorinville-SturgeonSherwood ParkSpruce GroveSt. AlbertStrathcona-Sherwood ParkWest Yellowhead Cold Lake-Bonnyville-St. PaulFort McMurray-Lac La BicheFort Saskatchewan-VegrevilleLac Ste. AnneLesser Slave LakeWest Yellowhead
Coloured: Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca, shaded by its 2023 replay result. Dashed lines: the ridings used in the 2023 election. Click a neighbouring riding's name to open its page.

Where its people come from

The closest riding on the Commission's map was Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca, which shares 89% of this riding's people. On 2023 votes, the UCP's share there was 73.9%; here it is 74.1%.

From the 2023 election ridings
  • Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock98%
  • Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland2%
From the Commission's proposed ridings
  • Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca89%
  • Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche11%

Shares of 2021 census population, measured from voting areas.

2023 votes on these boundaries

PartyVotesShare
UCP14,07074.0%
NDP4,92725.9%
All other candidates210.1%

Every 2023 ballot (election day, advance, special and mobile), reassigned by voting area to the proposed boundaries. These are estimates, not results from an actual election in this riding.

About these numbers