Proposed riding 76 of 91

Macleod-Crowsnest

Under the Independent Advisory Panel's proposed map, now before the Legislature. All results replay the 2023 election on these boundaries.

Votes here count about the same as the average Alberta vote. On the 2023 vote it is safe (UCP +43.5), where the Commission's High River-Vulcan-Siksika was safe (UCP +48.5).

52,185
people (panel's estimate), -3% vs the average riding of 53,722
UCP +43.5
2023 votes on these boundaries (UCP 71.8% of the UCP+NDP vote)
UCP
if Alberta split 50/50. It changes hands when the UCP's province-wide share is below 32.7%
13,380 km²
area

How much a vote here counts

Each MLA represents a group of people. In a riding with fewer people than average, each vote carries more weight. On the panel's map, a vote here counts 1.03× the average: more than in 66 of the other 90 ridings.

2023 election map (where its residents voted in 2023)
1.05×
Commission's map (for the same residents)
1.06×
Panel's map
1.03×

The black tick marks the average (1.00×). Weight = average riding population ÷ this riding's population, using current population estimates: the panel's and the Commission's own figures, and for the 2023 ridings, 2021 census counts scaled to the same estimates. For the first two maps it is averaged over this riding's current residents. Older ridings that have grown a lot since they were drawn show low weights; that imbalance is one reason ridings are redrawn.

What changes for UCP and NDP voters

The same 2023 ballots, counted three ways: in the riding most of these residents voted in, in the closest Commission riding, and in this riding.

UCP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Livingstone-Macleod)		Commission
(mostly High River-Vulcan-Siksika)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesWinsWinsWins
Share of the UCP+NDP vote72%74%72%
Votes that didn't affect the result30%33%30%
Province-wide vote needed to win here33%30%33%

NDP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Livingstone-Macleod)		Commission
(mostly High River-Vulcan-Siksika)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesLosesLosesLoses
Share of the UCP+NDP vote28%26%28%
Votes that didn't affect the result100%100%100%
Province-wide vote needed to win here67%70%67%

Voters for other parties and independents win this seat on none of the three maps. "Province-wide vote needed" is the party's share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta at which it would take this seat, assuming every riding moves by the same amount.

How competitive is it?

2023 election mapUCP +43.5safe
Commission's mapUCP +48.5safe
Panel's mapUCP +43.5safe
40%45%50%55%60%65%below this line the NDP wins; above it the UCP202360%70%80%90%UCP share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta↑ UCP share in this riding
Each line shows how the riding would vote as Alberta's overall vote moves (grey: the 2023 riding most residents voted in; green: the closest Commission riding; purple: this riding). Dots mark where each would change hands.

City, town or country?

Cities 0% · Towns and villages 50% · Rural areas and First Nations 50%. Share of residents, 2021 census. Sherwood Park and Fort McMurray count as cities.

The boundary

The proposed boundary
Calgary-AcadiaCalgary-Fish CreekCalgary-Glenmore-Tsuut'inaCalgary-HaysCalgary-LougheedCalgary-McKenzieCalgary-ShawCalgary-South EastBanff-Canmore-Diamond ValleyChestermere-StrathmoreLethbridgeLethbridge-CardstonLethbridge-Little BowLethbridge-Taber-WarnerMedicine Hat-BrooksOkotoksOlds-Didsbury-Three Hills Banff-Canmore-Diamond ValleyLethbridge-CardstonLethbridge-Little Bow
Coloured: Macleod-Crowsnest, shaded by its 2023 replay result. Dashed lines: the ridings used in the 2023 election. Click a neighbouring riding's name to open its page.

Where its people come from

The closest riding on the Commission's map was High River-Vulcan-Siksika, which shares 56% of this riding's people. On 2023 votes, the UCP's share there was 74.2%; here it is 71.8%.

From the 2023 election ridings
  • Livingstone-Macleod100%
From the Commission's proposed ridings
  • High River-Vulcan-Siksika56%
  • Livingstone-Macleod44%

Shares of 2021 census population, measured from voting areas.

2023 votes on these boundaries

PartyVotesShare
UCP16,14966.9%
NDP6,35626.3%
All other candidates1,6256.7%

Every 2023 ballot (election day, advance, special and mobile), reassigned by voting area to the proposed boundaries. These are estimates, not results from an actual election in this riding.

About these numbers