Proposed riding 82 of 91

Peace River

Under the Independent Advisory Panel's proposed map, now before the Legislature. All results replay the 2023 election on these boundaries.

Votes here count 24% more than the average Alberta vote. On the 2023 vote it is about as competitive as the Commission's Peace River.

43,399
people (panel's estimate), -19% vs the average riding of 53,722
UCP +52.2
2023 votes on these boundaries (UCP 76.1% of the UCP+NDP vote)
UCP
if Alberta split 50/50. It changes hands when the UCP's province-wide share is below 28.3%
109,228 km²
area

How much a vote here counts

Each MLA represents a group of people. In a riding with fewer people than average, each vote carries more weight. On the panel's map, a vote here counts 1.24× the average: more than in 86 of the other 90 ridings.

2023 election map (where its residents voted in 2023)
1.29×
Commission's map (for the same residents)
1.27×
Panel's map
1.24×

The black tick marks the average (1.00×). Weight = average riding population ÷ this riding's population, using current population estimates: the panel's and the Commission's own figures, and for the 2023 ridings, 2021 census counts scaled to the same estimates. For the first two maps it is averaged over this riding's current residents. Older ridings that have grown a lot since they were drawn show low weights; that imbalance is one reason ridings are redrawn.

What changes for UCP and NDP voters

The same 2023 ballots, counted three ways: in the riding most of these residents voted in, in the closest Commission riding, and in this riding.

UCP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Peace River)		Commission
(mostly Peace River)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesWinsWinsWins
Share of the UCP+NDP vote76%76%76%
Votes that didn't affect the result34%34%34%
Province-wide vote needed to win here28%28%28%

NDP voters

2023 riding
(mostly Peace River)		Commission
(mostly Peace River)		Panel
Result on 2023 votesLosesLosesLoses
Share of the UCP+NDP vote24%24%24%
Votes that didn't affect the result100%100%100%
Province-wide vote needed to win here72%72%72%

Voters for other parties and independents win this seat on none of the three maps. "Province-wide vote needed" is the party's share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta at which it would take this seat, assuming every riding moves by the same amount.

How competitive is it?

2023 election mapUCP +52.2safe
Commission's mapUCP +52.2safe
Panel's mapUCP +52.2safe
40%45%50%55%60%65%below this line the NDP wins; above it the UCP202360%70%80%90%UCP share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta↑ UCP share in this riding
Each line shows how the riding would vote as Alberta's overall vote moves (grey: the 2023 riding most residents voted in; green: the closest Commission riding; purple: this riding). Dots mark where each would change hands.

City, town or country?

Cities 2% · Towns and villages 32% · Rural areas and First Nations 65%. Share of residents, 2021 census. Sherwood Park and Fort McMurray count as cities.

The boundary

The proposed boundary
Central Peace-NotleyFort McMurray-Lac La BicheFort McMurray-Wood BuffaloGrande PrairieGrande Prairie-WapitiLesser Slave Lake Central Peace-NotleyFort McMurray-Wood BuffaloLesser Slave Lake
Coloured: Peace River, shaded by its 2023 replay result. Dashed lines: the ridings used in the 2023 election. Click a neighbouring riding's name to open its page.

Where its people come from

This riding is nearly the same as Peace River on the Commission's map.

From the 2023 election ridings
  • Peace River100%
From the Commission's proposed ridings
  • Peace River100%

Shares of 2021 census population, measured from voting areas.

2023 votes on these boundaries

PartyVotesShare
UCP8,23672.8%
NDP2,58722.9%
All other candidates4844.3%

Every 2023 ballot (election day, advance, special and mobile), reassigned by voting area to the proposed boundaries. These are estimates, not results from an actual election in this riding.

About these numbers